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Housing Market Could Spoil The Recovery Party

April 5, 2010 by ·

The gloom is dissipating. The jobs market is improving: 162,000 new jobs were created in March. Factor out the 48,000 hired temporarily to help with the census, and you still have positive growth. Employment in the hard-hit construction industry — which lost 864,000 jobs in the past 12 months — held steady, while jobs were added in manufacturing, mining, healthcare and temporary services.

But not all the news is good: the number of people out of work for more than 27 weeks rose to 6.5m, the unemployment rate remains stuck at 9.7%, and the total unemployed, involuntarily underemployed and too discouraged to look for work rose, and now constitute 16.9% of the workforce.

Still, the resumption of job creation is good news, and only one of the signs that the recovery continues. Share prices in the first quarter were up about 5%, their best start in more than a decade, as corporate profits came in better than expected after rising 8% in the fourth quarter of 2009, and corporate balance sheets remained strong. Bonds also did well, with investment-grade US debt and junk bonds up from their 2008 lows by 35% and 82%, respectively. So far, the fear that huge fiscal deficits will trigger inflation, a rise in interest rates and therefore a fall in bond prices, seems to be confined to a minority of investors. The majority are ignoring what might be the canary in the coal mine — a rise in interest rates demanded by purchasers of US government bonds. The yield on the Treasury’s 10-year note is hovering round the psychologically important 4% level, the highest since June 2009.

The performance of share and bond prices contributed to a recovery in consumer confidence after a sharp fall in February — it rose from 46.4 to 52.5 in March (1985=100). Which might explain last month’s spurt in car sales. General Motors’ sales of brands it intends to keep were up 43% year-on-year, Ford sales were up 40%, Toyota used incentives (discounts) of $2,256 per vehicle to drive sales up 41%, and although Chrysler’s sales fell 8%, the company expects to break even this year.

The good news was not confined to the motor sector. Overall consumer spending is growing at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 3%, the highest since the first quarter of 2007. Rosalind Wells, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, says “consumers are coming back to life a little”. With mortgage defaults and personal bankruptcies rising, relieving many consumers of debt and mortgage payments, those consumers have more cash to spend.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports that the manufacturing sector as a whole grew in March for the eighth straight month, and at the fastest pace since July 2004, to a six-year high. Seventeen of eighteen industries reported growth (only plastics lagged). Exports were up, as were inventories, the latter in anticipation of restocking by retailers and higher sales. A global survey of 11,000 companies by KPMG shows mounting optimism, with American manufacturing and service sector firms the second most optimistic (Brazilian ones were first). That confidence accounts for the increase recently recorded in business investment, which just might drive growth if consumers retreat from the malls again.

Most forecasters are guessing that when the final numbers for the overall economy are in, they will show that it grew at an annual rate of about 3% in the first quarter of this year, below the 5.6% rate of the final quarter of last year, but more than satisfactory. Several businessmen, some of whom were in the pessimist camp until recently, are now talking to me about a V-shaped recovery, a rebound of vigour and duration.

That view is not uniform. Small-business owners and entrepreneurs are somewhat gloomier. Some do not do much or any export business, and so are not sharing in the recovery of world trade. Many complain that their banks don’t want to know them when they ask for credit. Others worry that the president’s healthcare bill will drive up their insurance premiums. Still others know that the taxes on their personal incomes are due to rise, reducing their incentive to invest and hire.

Then there is the housing market, which remains an enigma. There are signs of stability. Twelve of the 20 cities covered by the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices show modest increases, and the overall index has risen for eight consecutive months, to almost year-ago levels for the first time in three years. Big publicly traded builders are again buying construction-ready lots. Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway owns Clayton Homes, a maker of manufactured housing, predicts that “within a year or so residential housing problems should be behind us”. Investors are among the optimists: homebuilders’ shares have nearly doubled over the past year.

They may be in for an unpleasant surprise. New home sales are still lagging, the supply of unsold homes remains high, the tax credit for first-time buyers expired last week, at the same time as the Federal Reserve Board discontinued its $1.4 trillion programme to purchase mortgage-backed securities. The housing market is key to creating construction jobs, and all the jobs that go with furnishing a home.

If these headwinds prove too strong, the arrival of spring will see the bears emerge from hibernation, especially if the recovery proves to be only “a sugar high” based on unsustainable government spending and low interest rates, which the bond vigilantes will, sooner rather than later, drive up.

My own guess is that the recovery will gather pace. If the Fed is to err, it will err on the side of waiting too long to “exit”. There is no sign that the government will rein in spending — increases are more likely — and a wall of money is sitting on the sidelines looking for investments or deals.

In the longer run, of course, we will have to pay the piper for the administration’s Greek-style fiscal policy. Meanwhile, enjoy the ride. By Irwin Stelzer:, The Times

Filed Under: Home Improvement, Industry ·

If You Were On Her Shoes

April 4, 2010 by ·

The reigning Binibining Pilipinas-Universe Maria Venus Raj has been dethroned after beauty pageant organizers allegedly found some “inconsistencies” on her birth certificate. And as a result of which, she’ll be replaced by Bb. Pilipinas runner-up, Helen Nicolette Henson to represent the country in a forthcoming Miss Universe Pageant. Now, looking back into what really transpired is that if you were on her shoes, what would you feel?

Modesty aside, had these BPCI organizers really been doing their job honestly and religiously then all these things now could have been possibly prevented. Granting that all their allegations against this very talented and beautiful lady from Camarines Sur are all true and authentic, but the mere fact that the organizers know about it after a series of constant interviews and queries made by them, and aside probably from the organizers initiative in conducting a background and thorough check towards all its contenders, then it is presumed that they had fully admitted the fact because if not, then she should no longer be permitted to vie for that title and stand before the eyes of million Filipino people only to be humiliated later on publicly.

Nevertheless, how disheartening really the organizers decision because it was not the fault of Ms Raj, hence, they are putting the shame upon her for the blunder they’ve made. Thus, with all of the foregoing, I do not see any reason why she should have been strip of her title just because of the organizer’s ineptitude. Well, the recent interview made by ABS-CBN TV host Boy Abunda in one of their show, Ms Raj reveals that they’ll be filing a case against the pageant’s organizer which to our mind is the best thing for her to do. Anyway, you have all our support Ms Raj whose only fault is winning that title.

Filed Under: Documentary, Personal ·

Prostate Tests Being Discussed By Doctors

April 4, 2010 by ·

Many men and their doctors are having more in-depth conversations about prostate tests after changes in screening recommendations brought on by conflicting studies into whether screening equates to fewer deaths.

Groups including the American Cancer Society are emphasizing a more individualized approach to prostate-specific antigen tests rather than routine tests for all men.

The cancer society has focused on an individualized approach for more than a decade, but last month, it updated recommendations to emphasize the importance of doctors more heavily involving patients in the decision and better educating them about the pros and cons associated with testing.

The primary concern is that men not at risk of dying of cancer are undergoing biopsies and unnecessary treatment and suffering the side effects, including erectile problems and incontinence. The lifetime risk of prostate-cancer diagnosis is 16 percent, but the lifetime risk of dying of the disease is only 3.4 percent, according to data from the National Cancer Institute.

A large U.S. study has found little difference in prostate-cancer death rates between men who received annual PSA tests and digital rectal exams and those who did not.

In contrast, a large European study has found a 20 percent reduction in the death rate for men who have regular PSA tests and rectal exams.

Both papers were published last year in The New England Journal of Medicine. Both studies continue.

The cancer society says conversations about PSA tests should start at age 50 unless patients have an elevated risk of prostate cancer, in which case the discussion should start at 45 years old. Those at higher risk include African-Americans and those with a close relative who had the disease diagnosed before age 65.

Men who are symptom-free and not expected to live another 10 years should not be offered screening, the guidelines say.

The American Urological Association also advises that men receive education about their options, and it encourages doctors to offer an initial baseline PSA test at age 40.

More than 192,000 men are told they have prostate cancer each year, and more than 27,000 die of the disease, according to estimates from the National Cancer Institute.

Dr. Robert Bahnson, chairman of the Department of Urology at Ohio State University Medical Center, said it’s important to be realistic when deciding what to do for men who do get PSA-test results that raise a concern.

It can be a challenge to explain that prompt treatment might not be in their best interest.

“They’ve been told ‘You have cancer,’ and not to treat it seems almost oxymoronic to them,” he said.

Bahnson said he often advises looking for a trend by running multiple prostate tests over at least 11/2 years before discussing with the patient what to do.

Dr. John Burgers, a urologist at Riverside Methodist Hospital, said he remains a strong advocate of routine PSA testing.

He said patients who’ve already been treated for the disease and have become advocates for testing are increasingly asking what they should tell their friends.

For older men, it makes sense for doctors to back off on PSA testing, but most younger men should still get tested, Burgers said.

Dr. Sarah Sams, a family physician who works at Grant Medical Center, said she has had discussions with patients for years about the benefits and limitations of testing, and will continue that.

New guidelines are more likely to change the practices of other primary-care physicians who routinely order PSA tests without giving their patients all the information, said Sams, who is president-elect of the Ohio Academy of Family Physicians. By Misti Crane, The Columbus Dispatch

Filed Under: Disease, Health Care ·

Most Women Unaware of Risk for Debilitating Fractures

April 3, 2010 by ·

Many women with an elevated risk for osteoporosis-related fractures fail to perceive themselves as high risk compared with other women of the same age.

These findings—part of the international Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW)—are published in the April 1, 2010, edition of the journal Osteoporosis International. The GLOW study includes data from more than 60,000 women in 10 countries.

Of the 28,000 U.S. women enrolled in GLOW, 3,128 were from Southwest Ohio. University of Cincinnati (UC) professor and UC Health endocrinologist Nelson Watts, MD, led the local arm of GLOW, which found that of the 3,128 women studied, only 40 percent of those with two or more risk factors perceived themselves to be at higher risk for fracture than their age-matched peers.

Of the 60,000 women studied across the globe, one in three (33 percent) with two or more risk factors perceived themselves to be at higher risk for fracture. Risk factors included diagnosis of osteoporosis, previous fracture, low weight, recent falls and parental hip fracture.

Authors of the study say the failure by women to appreciate their personal risk of fracture presents a barrier to receiving appropriate management and safe and effective treatments.

Watts, director of UC’s Bone Health and Osteoporosis Center and professor of medicine, says, “Too few patients at risk for osteoporosis are being tested and treated. A fracture can be a life-changing event, and many of the fractures due to osteoporosis could be prevented.”

Study authors urge improved education of both physicians and postmenopausal women about osteoporosis risk factors.

Osteoporosis causes bones to become fragile and therefore more likely to break. If left untreated, the disease can progress painlessly until a fracture occurs. One in two women will suffer an osteoporosis-related fracture after age 50. These fractures often carry with them chronic pain, reduced mobility, loss of independence and, especially in the case of hip fracture, an increased risk of death. Because the likelihood of fractures increases substantially with age, fracture numbers are projected to rise as the population ages. Several risk factors for fractures have been identified and should be considered by physicians treating women age 55 and over:

Other risk factors include a variety of medical conditions and medications. Although tools for diagnosis and risk assessment, including bone density testing and the World Health Organization FRAX fracture risk assessment tool, are widely available, the connection between identified risk factors and serious fracture outcomes is not being made by a majority of women who are at the highest risk. Since many fractures can be prevented by appropriate treatment, it is important that elevated risk be recognized.

GLOW is based at the Center for Outcomes Research at the University of Massachusetts Medical School and is supported by a grant from the Alliance for Better Bone Health (formerly sanofi-aventis and P&G Pharmaceuticals, now sanofi-aventis and Warner Chilcott) and is being directed by the Center for Outcomes Research, University of Massachusetts Medical School. Watts serves and a speaker and consultant for both sanofi-aventis and Warner Chilcott as well as other companies with products to treat osteoporosis.

Watts and UC environmental health researcher Amit Bhattacharya, PhD, recently formed a company based on technology they have developed called “Bone Shock Absorbance.” The company, OsteoDynamics, was formed with the help of Integrated BioScience Solutions, LLC (IGBS), and the business incubator BIOSTART, and will develop a new diagnostic tool to test a patient’s risk of bone fracture based on the Bone Shock Absorbance concept.

Bone Shock Absorbance is a non-invasive and painless test that measures how the energy associated with simple heel strike by a patient is propagated, absorbed and dissipated as its shock wave moves up a patient’s skeleton. The test provides information that measures a patient’s bone quality and appears to be a better indicator of fracture risk than the commonly used methods that simply measure the mineral density of a patient’s bones. Nelson Watts, MD., PhysOrg

Filed Under: Health & Fitness ·

A Gene Therapy That Restores Vision

April 2, 2010 by ·

In a finding that could lead to treatment of genetic blindness, American researchers have developed a gene therapy for an inherited retinal disease that leads to eventual blindness.

In a research, published in the FASEB Journal, the scientists at the University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center used a non-viral, synthetic nanoparticle carrier to improve and save the sight of mice with retinitis pigmentosa.

“We hope the results of our study will be instrumental in generating a cure for the debilitating blindness associated with retinitis pigmentosa and other inherited and acquired retinal diseases,” said senior author Muna I Naash.

“Compacted DNA nanoparticles are an exciting treatment strategy for these diseases and we look forward to exciting new developments,” Naash said.

In the study, the team treated a group of mice with the retinal degeneration slow (Rds) gene, which causes retinitis pigmentosa. The mice received one of three types of treatments — nanoparticles containing the normal copy of the Rds gene, the normal gene alone, or saline solution.

After these treatments were delivered to the mice, the structure and function of the retina were analysed by comparing them to untreated mice with retinitis pigmentosa and healthy mice with the normal Rds gene.

They also measured the level and pattern of Rds gene expression, as well as functional, structural and biochemical improvements in disease symptoms and found that the mice receiving the nanoparticle gene therapy showed significant signs of healing.

These mice had structural improvement in their retinas, as well as functional vision improvements, which lasted throughout the duration of the study.

The mice that received the gene alone or saline continued to lose their vision. The nanoparticles were safe and well-tolerated with no adverse effects.

According to the National Institutes of Health Office of Rare Diseases Research, retinitis pigmentosa is a group of inherited eye diseases that affect the retina.

Retinitis pigmentosa causes cells in the retina to die prematurely, eventually leading to vision loss. There is no cure for it till now. Zeenews

Filed Under: Health & Fitness, Medical Research & Study ·

Higher Vitamin K Intake Tied To Lower Cancer Risks

April 1, 2010 by ·

People with higher intakes of vitamin K from food may be less likely to develop or die of cancer, particularly lung or prostate cancers, than those who eat relatively few vitamin-K- containing foods, a new study suggests.

The study, reported in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, appears to be the first to look at the association between vitamin K intake and the risk of developing or dying from cancer in general. A previous report had linked it to lower prostate cancer risk

The findings do not prove that consuming more vitamin K helps lower the risks of certain cancers. But they lay the foundation for future studies to try to answer that question, according to Dr. Jakob Linseisin and colleagues at the German Cancer Research Center in Heidelberg.

Vitamin K exists in two natural forms: vitamin K1, or phylloquinone, found largely in green leafy vegetables, as well as some vegetable oils, such as canola and soybean oils; and vitamin K2, or menaquinone, for which meat and cheese are the primary dietary sources.

In the current study, vitamin K2 — which study participants most frequently got through cheese — was linked to the odds of developing or dying from cancer, whereas vitamin K1 was not.

The findings are based on data from 24,340 German adults who were between the ages of 35 and 64, and cancer-free at the outset. The researchers estimated the participants’ usual vitamin K intake based on a detailed dietary questionnaire.

Over the next decade, 1,755 participants were diagnosed with colon, breast, prostate or lung cancers, of whom 458 died during the study period.

In general, the researchers found, the one quarter with the highest intakes of vitamin K2 were 28 percent less likely to have died of any one of the cancers than the one-quarter of men and women with the lowest intakes of the vitamin. That was with factors like age, weight, exercise habits, smoking and consumption of certain other nutrients, like fiber and calcium, taken into account.

Of the one-quarter of study participants who got the least vitamin K2, 156 — or 2.6 percent — died of one of the four cancers. That was true of 1.6 percent of participants with the highest intakes of the vitamin from food.

When Linseisin’s team looked at the cancer types individually, there was no clear link between either form of vitamin K and breast cancer or colon cancer. However, greater consumption of vitamin K2 was linked to lower risks of developing or dying from lung cancer — a disease for which smoking is the major risk factor — or of developing prostate cancer.

Of the one-quarter of study participants with the lowest vitamin K2 intakes, 47 — or 0.8 percent — developed lung cancer, versus 0.4 percent of the one-quarter who got the most vitamin K2 in their diets.

When it came to prostate cancer, there were 111 cases among the one-quarter of men with the lowest vitamin K2 intakes, and 65 cases in the group with the highest consumption.

In theory, vitamin K itself could offer some protection against cancer. It’s often used to counteract too-high doses of blood thinners, although this does not have an obvious link to cancer. In lab research, however, Linseisin and his colleagues point out, the vitamin has been shown to inhibit cancer cell growth and promote apoptosis — a process by which abnormal cells kill themselves off.

But whether vitamin K intake itself is responsible for the lower cancer risks in this study is unclear, according to the researchers. One limitation is that they estimated vitamin K intake based on participants’ reported eating habits; most of their vitamin K came from eating cheese, and it’s possible, Linseisin and his colleagues note, that some other components of that food are related to cancer risk.

Future studies, the researchers say, should measure people’s blood levels of vitamin K and look at the relationship of those levels with cancer risks.

In the U.S., the recommended daily intake for vitamin K, in all forms, is 120 micrograms for men and 90 micrograms for women.

In the current study, men in the group with the highest vitamin K intake from food got 92 micrograms a day or more; their female counterparts got at least 84 micrograms per day. Yahoo Daily News

Filed Under: Disease, Green Leafy Vegetables ·